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Industry Insight Report: HVAC & Plumbing Contractors Q1-2025

HVAC Industry Insight Report

HVAC Contractors Brace for Tariffs

To protect their margins, HVAC contractors should pay close attention to the percentage of equipment and parts they install that is imported amid the Trump administration’s tariff-based trade policies, according to ACHR News. On March 4, 2024, the Trump Administration paused tariffs on US imports from Mexico and Canada for one month for products that are compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). On February 3, a 10% tariff on goods from China went into effect. The US imports about $25 billion worth of HVAC products annually, and about 70% of imports come from countries affected by the tariff regime. HVAC contractor revenue and profits could suffer if tariffs push HVAC equipment prices higher, and consumers choose to trade down to less expensive replacement products or opt to repair instead of replace.

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Sales for the US HVAC and plumbing contractors industry are forecast

Industry Forecast

Sales for the US HVAC and plumbing contractors industry are forecast to grow at a 5.07% compounded annual rate from 2025 to 2029, faster than the growth of the overall economy.

By the Numbers

Employment by HVAC and plumbing contractors increases
Overall employment by HVAC and plumbing contractors changed 3.1% in January compared to a year ago, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Wages at HVAC and plumbing contractors rise
Average wages for nonsupervisory employees at HVAC and plumbing contractors were $38.38 per hour in January, a 3.5% change compared to a year ago.

  • Lion Business Advisors quarterly industry insights data provided by VerticalIQ industry intelligence platform